WIIS McGill Articles

Featured here are articles that our writers from WIIS McGill’s Publications Portfolio have written on a wide array of issues pertaining to International Security.

A Renewable Future or Just a New Era of Resource Exploitation? How the Green Gold Rush is Reshaping Geopolitics, Supply Chains, and Global Power Dynamics

Written by: Adrienne Calzada

Edited by: Rebecca Larsson Zinger

March 27th, 2025

Photo Credit: David de la Iglesia Villar

With human activity permanently altering the Earth’s climate, further pushing the planet toward an environmental crisis characterized by rising temperatures, extreme weather, and ecosystem collapse, it is indisputable that a fundamental shift in our energy and consumption patterns is required. Decades of reliance on fossil fuels have created a dangerous cycle of carbon lock-in, where investments in high-carbon infrastructure and technologies create a self-reinforcing cycle, making it increasingly difficult and costly to transition to low-carbon alternatives, thereby hindering climate action. According to IRENA’s 1.5°C scenario, however, electricity is projected to become the primary energy carrier in the future, with its share more than doubling from 22% today to 51% by 2050. Furthermore, biomass and hydrogen are expected to constitute more significant portions of the total energy consumption than fossil fuels. The shift from fossil fuels to renewable energy thus fosters the development of electrified, decentralized, and digitalized energy systems. These renewable-based systems, including green hydrogen and sustainable biomass, are inherently more efficient and support higher rates of electrification, enhancing overall energy sustainability. 

This impending energy shift is fuelling a new resource scramble—not for oil, but for the critical minerals that power clean energy technologies. The transition from fossil fuels to renewables is driving global demand for lithium, cobalt, and rare earth elements, essential for batteries, EVs, and solar panels. The race to decarbonize the global economy is thus introducing a Green Gold Rush, where countries compete to secure access to these scarce resources, reshaping global trade patterns and geopolitical alliances. Unlike fossil fuels (which are more geographically widespread), critical minerals are concentrated in only a handful of countries, making supply chains vulnerable to political instability, resource nationalism, and market volatility. This reliance on a few key suppliers raises concerns about supply security, ethical mining practices, and environmental sustainability. 

As nations race to control these essential materials, new power dynamics are emerging that could redefine global trade, strategic alliances, and economic dependencies. This shift also exposes the unequal distribution of costs and benefits in the clean energy transition, as resource-rich developing nations often bear the environmental and social consequences of extraction while wealthier nations reap the benefits of decarbonization. The question remains: Will this new energy order be more equitable than the fossil fuel era, or will it replicate the same patterns of exploitation and conflict?

First, What Will a Green Energy Transition Look Like? 

The Green Gold Rush is occurring amid severe geopolitical tensions brought forth by the pandemic’s economic consequences, rising protectionism, and escalations of current global conflicts (i.e. Sudan, Ukraine, Gaza). Such disruptions have profoundly affected trade relationships, economic alliances, and supply chains, particularly in clean energy and mineral sectors. As countries compete for power, they increasingly vie for control over strategic resources. These tensions are further exacerbated by rising technology prices and supply vulnerabilities, which intensify concerns over foreign dependency and trade security. The attacks on the Nord Stream pipeline and disruptions in Red Sea oil and liquefied natural gas shipments, for example,  illustrate the profound interconnectedness of energy security and military conflicts. 

Although residual dependencies on fossil and nuclear fuels will remain, new dependencies will simultaneously emerge around increased trade in electricity, hydrogen, critical materials, and clean technologies. These new dependencies are remarkably different from conventional and precedented fossil fuels dependencies, however. The current geopolitical environment raises concerns regarding foreign dependency and alters partnerships and alliances. Moreover, these new dependencies will comprise highly concentrated supply chains, posing serious risks as they create economic instability, geopolitical conflicts, and environmental and ethical concerns. As demand for critical minerals skyrockets, addressing these vulnerabilities will be essential for a secure and just energy transition. For example, the European Union’s accelerated pivot away from Russian natural gas following the 2022 invasion of Ukraine led to urgent investment in alternative energy sources and infrastructure. This sudden shift revealed how existing energy ties can be disrupted by conflict, prompting countries to reassess their energy security strategies and scramble for access to new technologies and materials.

The Lithium Triangle and the Democratic Republic of Congo: Geopolitical Leverage, Supply Chain Vulnerabilities, and Resource Nationalism

 Lithium and cobalt are essential to the energy transition as the world shifts away from fossil fuels, reshaping economic relationships and dependencies. Unlike oil, which is found in multiple regions, these critical minerals are heavily concentrated in a few countries, giving them new leverage over global energy markets. The Lithium Triangle (Argentina, Bolivia, Chile) holds over 50% of the world’s lithium reserves, and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) supplies 70% of the world’s cobalt, essential for EV batteries, solar panels and wind turbines. Consequently, these mineral-rich nations may gain greater geopolitical leverage, influencing global energy markets as demand for critical materials surges. Meanwhile, oil-rich nations—particularly those with established economic and political power like Canada and Saudi Arabia—are unlikely to see their influence disappear but will need to redefine their strategies to maintain their geopolitical relevance in an energy landscape increasingly shaped by renewables and resource diversification.

Resource dependency on a few key suppliers raises supply chain vulnerabilities, ethical concerns, and environmental risks. Lithium extraction is water-intensive and strains arid regions like Chile’s Atacama Desert, exacerbating pre-existing tensions with Indigenous communities over land degradation. Additionally, cobalt mining in the DRC has been linked to child labour, corruption, and hazardous conditions, intensifying calls for ethical sourcing and supply chain transparency. A transition to greener energy sources, therefore, risks the legitimization of, encouragement and complicity in unethical resource extraction, calling for a reevaluation of what this transition indeed implies and a reassessment of how sustainability is defined- equally in terms of reducing carbon emissions and in ensuring ethical, equitable, and environmentally responsible resource extraction practices.

Furthermore, China dominates global processing, refining 60-80% of lithium, cobalt, and other rare earth elements, similar to OPEC’s past control over oil. This consequence prompts nations to reevaluate their supply chains, with policies like friend-shoring, domestic resource investments, and trade alliances to reduce reliance on China’s refining control.

The rise of resource nationalism poses an additional threat. Governments in Chile, Bolivia, Indonesia, and the DRC are imposing stricter regulations, nationalizing mining industries, and initiating contracts to capture more economic benefits from their resources. While these efforts increase local economic control, they also create investor policy uncertainty, leading to potential market volatility and trade tensions. Furthermore, disruptions caused by natural disasters, political instability or trade disputes in those countries can result in shortages or price fluctuations, affecting global energy markets.  As the competition for critical minerals intensifies, balancing national resource sovereignty with global energy security will be crucial in determining whether the Green Gold Rush fosters greater economic independence for resource-rich nations or exacerbates instability and supply chain vulnerabilities in the renewable energy era.

Is the Green Transition Just Another Exploitation Cycle?: Colonial Déjà Vu in Energy Politics

The clean energy transition is promoted as a solution to the climate crisis; however, it also exacerbates global inequalities, disproportionately benefiting wealthier nations while placing the burden on resource-rich but economically vulnerable countries. This dynamic, often described as green colonialism, mirrors historical patterns of exploitation, where raw materials are extracted from the Global South to fuel development in the Global North.

 The Global North’s control over supply chains and trade policies has reinforced economic dependency, preventing resource-rich nations from fully benefiting from their own natural wealth. Additionally, the Green Gold Rush raises critical questions of energy equity—how can wealthy nations justify blocking fossil fuel investments in developing countries while continuing their own fossil fuel production? By limiting economic growth opportunities in the Global South, the Global North risks ensuring that the clean energy transition replicates the same structural inequalities and dependencies that defined the fossil fuel era.

Despite its promise, the clean energy sector is not inherently sustainable. Lithium mining depletes water tables, exacerbating droughts in already arid regions, while nickel and cobalt extraction contributes to deforestation, biodiversity loss, and toxic pollution​. Additionally, large-scale mineral extraction efforts often disregard Indigenous land rights and fuel social unrest, as local communities bear the environmental and health costs without receiving the economic benefits​. 

This extractive logic is not limited to mineral resources. Corn-based ethanol offers a parallel example of how green energy policies can unintentionally undermine sustainability and equity. Following the implementation of NAFTA in 1994, the U.S. increased exports of heavily subsidized corn to Mexico. This influx depressed local prices and displaced small-scale Mexican farmers who could not compete with U.S. agribusiness. Corn prices surged globally as demand for ethanol grew in the early 2000s, driven by U.S. biofuel mandates and subsidies. In Mexico, this created food insecurity and social unrest as corn- central to the country’s diet and culture- became less affordable for millions. Meanwhile, ethanol’s climate benefits are increasingly contested as studies increasingly confirm that corn ethanol can generate nearly twice the greenhouse gas emissions of gasoline over a 30-year span when accounting for land-use change, fertilizer use, and processing emissions. The ethanol case illustrates how so-called green solutions can reproduce both environmental harm and economic displacement despite their intended goals of promoting sustainability

The Green Gold Rush may, therefore, provoke a feeling of colonial déjà-vu, where the pursuit of progress and industrial advancement comes at the expense of marginalized communities and fragile ecosystems, raising the question of whether the green energy revolution is truly different or simply repeating the same extractive logic in a new guise.

Decarbonization Cannot Repeat the Exploitation of the Past: True Sustainability Requires Equity and Bottom-Up Solutions

The Green Gold Rush is reshaping global trade, geopolitics, and economic power, shifting dependencies from fossil fuels to critical minerals. While the transition to renewable energy is essential for mitigating climate change, it also introduces new risks in supply chain security, environmental degradation, and global inequality. As mineral-rich nations gain strategic leverage, supply chain bottlenecks, trade disputes, and political instability could disrupt access to these essential resources, putting global energy security at risk.

Additionally, the current renewable energy model risks replicating the same exploitative structures of the fossil fuel era, in which economic growth in wealthier nations is prioritized while environmental and social costs are externalized onto developing regions​. A clean energy revolution can only be successful if ethical supply chains, fair trade agreements, and investments in sustainable extraction practices are implemented, further complicating an already complex decarbonization effort. These efforts are imperative, however, as the clean energy revolution cannot come at the expense of the very people and ecosystems it seeks to protect. 

The current uncertain geopolitical climate, coupled with the unprecedented nature of this transition, begs the question: Can we break from the extractive cycles of the past, or will the Green Gold Rush become the next frontier of resource exploitation? Is the clean energy transition indeed a pathway to sustainability or a new iteration of economic and environmental injustice? 

The Rohingya: A Struggle for Survival and Recognition

Written by: Alice Tremblay 

Edited by: Rebecca Larsson Zinger 

March 27th, 2025

Rohingya refugees crossing the Bangladesh-Myanmar border. Photo Credit: Mohammad Ponir Hossain/Reuters 

Myanmar’s decades of military rule and ethnic tensions have fueled severe human rights violations against the Rohingya, a Muslim ethnic minority in the country’s Rakhine State. The Rohingya have been subjected to systemic persecution, with little protection or recourse.

Myanmar’s 1982 citizenship law in particular denies them legal recognition, essentially leaving them stateless. This legal exclusion has paved the way for widespread discrimination, including restrictions on movement, education, and employment. Tensions escalated dramatically in August 2017 when Myanmar’s military launched a brutal crackdown described by the United Nations as a “textbook example of ethnic cleansing.”  This operation in the Rakhine State led to mass killings, sexual violence, and the destruction of villages, forcing over 700,000 Rohingya to flee to neighboring Bangladesh.

The influx of refugees resulted in the establishment of overcrowded camps in Bangladesh’s Cox’s Bazar district; notably the Kutupalong camp, which is now the world’s largest refugee settlement. The camp’s high density and limited resources pose considerable challenges to sanitation and healthcare. For basic necessities, refugees rely heavily, if not entirely, on humanitarian aid. 

Within the camps, security has deteriorated due to the emergence of armed groups, such as the Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army. Initially formed to resist Myanmar’s military, ARSA has been implicated in criminal activities within the camps, including abductions and killings of fellow refugees. Recent reports even indicate that ARSA’s leader, Ataullah Abu Ammar Jununi, was arrested by Bangladeshi authorities on charges related to illegal entry and terrorism. 

While the international community has condemned the atrocities committed against the Rohingya, aid agencies have been facing challenges like funding shortages and restricted access to affected populations. The potential reduction in foreign aid, particularly from major donors, such as the United States, threatens to worsen the already dire conditions in the camps. Without sustained support, the prospects for improving the living conditions of the Rohingya will remain low. 

Addressing the Rohingya crisis requires a coordinated international response. Legal accountability through bodies like the International Criminal Court is essential to deter future abuses. Expanding humanitarian aid is crucial to meet the immediate needs of refugees, including food, healthcare, and education. It is also vital to empower local communities to participate in the relief process to ensure that aid is both sustainable and culturally appropriate. Long-term solutions should focus on safe and voluntary repatriation when conditions allow, or alternative pathways like local integration. Ultimately, ensuring the protection and rights of the Rohingya will require both a commitment to justice and a concerted effort to address the root causes of their displacement. Regional cooperation through ASEAN and sustained global engagement are critical to promoting security, protecting human rights, and supporting lasting peace in Myanmar.

Trump, Greenland, and the Return of Imperial Dreams; Are 19th-Century Expansionist Tactics making a 21st Century Come Back? 

Written by: Maya McKay

Edited by: Iona Riga

March 20th, 2025

Illustration: Kyle Ellingson in “In a New Age of Empire, Great Powers Aim to Carve Up the Planet” by Yaroslav Trofimov

Skinny jeans, wired headphones, and digital cameras are all making a comeback – and if you ask the world’s most powerful leaders, so is imperialism. 

Post-WWII, nations took to San Francisco to sign the UN Charter, in which they pledged to abide by international law and respect state sovereignty, regardless of a country’s size or strength. Despite this, in a new age of empire, today, great powers are imposing their will on smaller states, carving up the planet; slice by slice. Russia’s war of conquest in Ukraine rages into its third year. China escalates its military provocations against Taiwan. And now, Trump revives his audacious threat to claim Greenland. 

Home to about 57,000 Inuit people, Greenland is controlled by Denmark, a NATO member. Its strategic location has long made it valuable to the U.S., which established military bases there after World War II. As Arctic tensions rise, Greenland’s proximity to potential Russian missile routes makes it a key player in defense agreements, fueling U.S. interest in the island. Additionally, climate change is creating new economic and military opportunities ripe for Trump’s taking. The melting of major ice sheets is opening new shipping routes, increasing maritimes traffic and allowing access to previously untapped natural resources. Among these resources – lithium – a critical component in electric vehicle batteries – has become particularly significant. The irony is that lithium is essential to Tesla’s production, a billion dollar company led by Elon Musk, Trump’s latest bro-mance. Plus, with China currently dominating the global lithium supply, the U.S. has a strategic interest in securing alternative sources. 

With these motives in mind, Trump stated that “I’m not going to commit to [ruling out military action]. It might be that you’ll have to do something. We need Greenland for national security purposes.” And to all of this, Danish politician Anders Vistisen says ‘It is not for sale. Let me put it into words you might understand, Mr.Trump: fu*k off.’ 

While the prospect of the U.S. annexing Greenland remains unlikely, such threats should not be dismissed. This rhetoric reflects a broader resurgence of 19th-century-style power politics, where territorial ambitions and strategic interests override normative considerations like sovereignty and self-determination. Greenland is merely one example of powerful actors disregarding the legitimacy of nations, operating under the assumption that their ambition alone justifies action. If the post-war order was built on the promise that might would no longer make right, then the return of imperial ambitions – from Greenland, to Canada, to the Panama Canal, to most recently, the Gaza strip – suggest that that promise is unraveling. The question now is whether the world will hold the line, or if great powers will continue carving up the globe, one bold claim at a time. 

The Unseen War
Gender-Based Violence in Refugee Camps: Beyond a Humanitarian Crisis, a Global Security Threat

Written by: Jeanne Belva 

Edited by: Lynn Hoffmeister

March 20th, 2025

Rohingya girls pump water in Balukhali refugee camp, Bangladesh. Many of the gender equality targets are directly linked to sanitation. ©UN Women/Allison Joyce

By the end of 2024, an estimated 123 million people worldwide had been forcibly displaced due to persecution, conflict, violence, human rights violations, and widespread instability. This is not just about migration—it is a global unraveling, a violent reconfiguration of international order fueled by the failures of states, institutions, and collective human empathy. Refugees are not merely seeking shelter; their movement exposes the fragility of states, the inadequacy of global governance, and the false assumptions that borders are barriers against chaos. Far from a temporary exodus, it is a seismic shift in the global security landscape.

Policies addressing forced migration often focus on its root causes—wars, persecution, or natural disasters—while failing to address the dangers that arise within the very places meant to provide refuge. Refugee camps and emergency shelters are not neutral havens. In many cases, they are incubators of new crises, where systemic neglect turns displaced individuals into targets of violence, exploitation and human right abuses. Among the most overlooked yet underreported threat is gender-based violence (GBV). Women and girls in refugee settlements face an unrelenting assault on their dignity and safety, trapped in spaces that were never designed to protect them. The conditions in these settlements – overcrowding, lack of privacy, unsafe sanitation facilities, and inadequate security – create a reality where GBV is not just a possible risk but an expectation. 

Indeed, women in shelters face severe risks due to inadequate privacy, lack of gender-segregated sanitation, and systemic disempowerment. For instance,  in cases of climate-induced displacement, studies show that 71% of Bangladeshi women experienced increased violence (here specifically during flood-related migrations). Reports highlight high rates of sexual violence in emergency shelters, particularly during sleep, bathing, and dressing. The lack of doors, locks, or proper lighting in many shelters forces women to suppress their basic needs until nightfall, when the risk of assault becomes even greater. For Muslim women, privacy is even more critical due to religious and cultural norms, yet survivors often remain silent due to stigma and fear of ostracization.

However, this failure to provide safe and dignified refuge is not just a humanitarian shortcoming; it is a global security threat. When the states and its institutions ignore the suffering of displaced people, we do not just fail them—we fail ourselves. We allow instability to fester, violence to spread, and resentment to grow.

The consequences of this neglect are not confined to the refugee camps. In Cox’s Bazar in Bangladesh, the lack of privacy and security for women significantly increases their vulnerability to human trafficking networks. These networks exploit climate-displaced women, coercing them into forced labor, prostitution and criminal activities. The International Organization for Migration has identified young girls being sold into forced labor as the largest group of trafficking victims in these camps. Additionally, Human Rights Watch has documented cases of violence against Rohingya refugees, including murder, kidnapping, torture, rape, sexual assault, and forced marriage, highlighting the severe security challenges within the camps. In Nigeria, the extremist group Boko Haram infiltrates refugee settlements, employing sexual violence as a weapon to destabilize communities and recruit fighters. Amnesty International reports that Boko Haram fighters have subjected women and girls to rape and other forms of sexual violence during attacks in Borno State, actions that constitute war crimes.

The world has witnessed this before. The mass displacement from Syria fueled the rise of extremist groups, overwhelmed European asylum systems, and reshaped political landscapes across the West. The refugee crisis of today is the geopolitical crisis of tomorrow. Failing to secure and support displaced populations doesn’t just mean human suffering but allows breeding insecurity that will ricochet across continents.

Ensuring gender-segregated facilities, secure shelter, and protection for vulnerable populations is not charity—it is security policy. Ignoring these needs is a choice, and that choice has far reaching aftereffects: radicalization, human trafficking, geopolitical instability, and cycles of violence that will inevitably spill beyond borders. 

Women in the Crossfire: The Gendered Toll of Sudan’s Humanitarian Crisis 

Written by: Dena Ojaghi

Edited by: Gabrielle Adams

March 13th, 2025

Cover Photo: Sarah Dink carries her child while going to a camp in Gezira state, on Dec. 10, 2023. She says, “I’m worried about my children’s future. I am thinking of returning to Abyei so that I can provide education for my children.”  Faiz Abubakr

Waging famine in Sudan has left women and children vulnerable to both severe health crises and a brutal political conflict. As Sudan’s political climate darkens, women and girls are disproportionately affected, facing higher levels of famine, violence, and death than their male counterparts. The country is experiencing it’s worst humanitarian crisis as the civil war, which began in April 2023, continues to escalate. The ongoing power struggle between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), a rebel paramilitary group, is intensifying, while a massive hunger crisis reaches unprecedented levels. International relief efforts are dwindling due to delivery sanctions. Doctors Without Borders has warned that Sudan’s medical system is on the brink of collapse, exacerbated by the near-total flight of volunteer forces and escalating brutality on the ground. With the RSF controlling most aid distribution, activists and volunteers are losing hope as the group continues to block humanitarian assistance and hinder political progress. Sudan’s pro-democracy movement, initially driven by mass protests, had sparked a decentralized transition toward an elected civilian government. However, this process was deliberately obstructed when General Abdel-Fattah Burhan and RSF leaders staged a military coup in October 2022, triggering the ongoing conflict. The vast scale of the conflict is difficult to conceptualize as, despite being deemed the world’s greatest humanitarian emergency and devastating virtually every facet of Sudanese society, only 60 percent of international funding appeals are being met by the international community.    

Sexual violence has now become a weapon in the context of this civil war and puts Sudanese women at an all-time vulnerable position. Framed as a “total war” on the bodies of women and girls by the United Nations Population Fund, gender-based implications of the conflict are obvious. Wielded as a weapon to terrorize communities and exert control, reports of sexual abuse have skyrocketed with the Fund having had to reach more than 112,000 women with sexual and reproductive health services in the past year alone.  Sudanese activists have put out a call for more medication, medical supplies, dignity kits and post-exposure prophylaxis kits to prevent HIV transmission and to support the clinical management of rape, where timely and accessible healthcare in the face of conflict has been scarce.  

Sexual abuse isn’t the only form of violence highlighting gender-based discrimination and dynamics in Sudan. In ten Sudan states, 64 percent of female-headed households are experiencing food insecurity compared to 48 percent of male-headed households: women and girls are eating least and last. Women on the brink of starvation are having to resort to drastic actions such as engaging in survival sex or forced marriage; endangering their livelihoods becomes the only source of hope for survival.  

Although Sudanese women are disproportionately affected by the humanitarian crisis, their stories extend beyond these challenges, continuing as a testament to resilience and determination. Women in Sudan have risen as agents of change to neutralize and combat human rights violations. The pivotal pro-democracy movements triggered to drive President Omar al- Bashir out of office were spearheaded by female activists, like 22-year-old protester, Alaa Salah  and Wifaq Quraishi, leading to the successful ousting of President Bashir who is still at large as he faces five counts of crimes against humanity.  

Female activists continue to drive advocacy for a more inclusive and equitable society by mobilizing women to unite against military abuse and violence. Naama’s story is that of a Sudanese woman mobilizing her community amidst the crisis in Khartoum; Naama joined forces with other local community members to establish an organization focused on combating gender-based violence. Despite dealing with personal tragedies, Naama facilitates the collaboration of Sudanese women to provide assistance for endangered girls in the capital. Becoming an essential silent hero and an inherent part of the fire-line response in Sudan all the while providing crucial support networks for women and girls facing sexual violence and forced marriage, Naama exudes what it means to be resilient.   

With over 25 million people in need of humanitarian aid, the latest United Nations Humanitarian Affairs response plan outlines that vital aid has only reached 11.7 million Sudanese civilians out of a population of more than 51 million. International assistance is nowhere near the threshold required to provide lifesaving resources to Sudanese people as the crisis reaches a crux. The United Nations continues to prioritize civilian protection in its aid efforts, yet the pressing need for conflict de-escalation and unrestricted humanitarian access across borders and conflict lines highlights the immense scope of support Sudan requires. Funding and specialized aid targeted towards women and girls in Sudan are put forth by the United Nation’s emphasis on the centrality of gendered protection, aiming to reduce further harm and destruction while simultaneously aiming to rebuild and restore the livelihoods of women and girls. 

Redefining Sovereignty: the Climate Crisis in Small Island Developing States

Written by: Annabelle Zehner

Edited by: Lynn Hoffmeister

March 13th, 2025

Simon Kofe addresses COP26 from the water. Photograph: Tuvalu Foreign Ministry/Reuters

On November 9th, 2021, a video of Tuvaluan foreign minister Simon Kofe was shown at COP26, the United Nations Climate Change Conference held in Glasgow that year. In the footage, Kofe stood knee-deep in seawater, on what was once completely dry land, visually appealing to the international community that the threat of climate change is no longer distant or theoretical. Tuvalu, a Small Island Developing State (SIDS), comprises nine islands, which have a total combined land area of less than 26 km², with the highest point above sea level at a mere 4.6m. Tuvalu’s geography and low economic development place it on the frontlines of the climate crisis, making it particularly vulnerable to rising sea levels and extreme weather events resulting from climate change, despite producing some of the lowest levels of greenhouse gas emissions in the world.

According to Westphalian tradition, enshrined under international law, sovereignty is defined as complete control within a clearly defined territory. However, as Tuvalu’s landmass is diminishing due to forces beyond its control, its existence as a sovereign state is called into question. How can Tuvalu retain its sovereignty when faced with such an existential and border-defying threat as the climate crisis? Can a state be sovereign without physical territory?

Given the border-defying nature of the climate crisis – wherein nearly every state contributes, and nearly every state will inevitably face its consequences – effective climate action can not and will not be achieved without global cooperation. And yet, the response of the international community has been hugely underwhelming considering the immediacy of the threat. Tuvalu’s population is set to become the world’s first climate refugees, a category not currently recognised or protected under the Refugee Convention. On November 10th, 2023, Australia and Tuvalu signed a treaty offering a pathway to permanent residency for up to 280 displaced Tuvaluans per year. However, former Prime Minister Enele Sopoaga has stated that this approach is “self-defeatist”, allowing the land, a site of rich cultural history, to succumb to the impacts of climate change, rather than attempting to prevent and control them. Further, Australia has been accused of striking this deal in the interest of its power competition with China in the Pacific, and not out of genuine concern for the climate.

On November 15th, 2022, Simon Kofe returned to the international stage on video at COP27 – held in Sharm el-Sheikh that year – announcing Tuvalu’s Future Now Project. In the video, Kofe stood on land that was revealed to be digitally generated, declaring that in the face of global inaction, and rapidly rising sea levels, Tuvalu had “no choice but to become the world’s first digital nation”. Tuvalu has created a digital clone of itself in the metaverse in an attempt to archive the nation’s rich history and culture, and eventually move all government functions online. The Future Now Project is a substitute for the physical, allowing the state to function and national identity to persist in the absence of land.

In line with the development of its digital clone, Tuvalu has changed its legal definition of statehood. The constitution states that “the State of Tuvalu within its historical, cultural, and legal framework shall remain in perpetuity”, meaning that its existence is not contingent on physical land. Under international law, however, this is not the case; a state must have clearly defined borders and a permanent population to be considered sovereign. Tuvalu is engaged in ongoing efforts to have its new definition of sovereignty recognised so that it may retain control over its maritime zones, international voting rights, and its voice on the world stage, even if its territory becomes fully submerged.

By presenting a new model of statehood, the case of Tuvalu draws attention to evolving conceptions of sovereignty in the face of border-defying global political challenges such as the climate crisis. However, the future of its statehood ultimately depends on whether the international community chooses to act.

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