Written by : Meline Tarpinyan
Edited by: Carly Waiz
Earlier this October, Pakistan and Afghanistan began exchanging airstrikes and gunfire across their borders as Islamabad seeks to limit the power of the Pakistani Taliban, which operates from Afghanistan. Since then, border clashes have led to the deaths of dozens of soldiers on both sides, marking the biggest confrontation between the two countries since the Taliban seized power of Afghanistan in 2021. With both countries failing to establish a long-term peace deal in Istanbul, fears of a major war breaking out have risen. However, the Pakistani government and the Taliban have not always been so tense. In fact, at one point they were considered allies.
To understand how relations between these former allies have so quickly soured, one must consider the history of Pakistani-Taliban relations.
The Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) is a Pakistani offshoot of the Taliban composed of jihadist units in Northwest Pakistan advocating for Sunni Islamist and Pro-Pastuni (Pakistan’s largest ethnic minority and Afghanistan’s ethnic majority) nationalism. After its formation in 2007, the TTP began gaining territory by attacking military bases, police stations, mosques, and other places of gathering on the border of Afghanistan and deeper within Pakistan. However, despite the Pakistani government’s attempt to counter TTP terrorism, they generally supported its close ally, the Afghani Taliban against Afghanistan’s former Western-backed government.
In 2021, when the Taliban quickly regained control over Afghanistan, the Pakistani government welcomed their return to power. However, this quickly proved volatile when the Afghani Taliban enabled terrorist groups like the TTP to forge attacks from within their territory without regulation.
Since then, border skirmishes have been on the rise as Pakistan’s attempts to limit the terrorist organization’s power have been largely disorganized and ineffective, leading to potential civilian harm and human rights violations on both sides.
The most recent escalation began when the Pakistani military conducted airstrikes within Afghanistan, leading to retaliations and diplomatic freezings between the countries. As of late October, discussions between the two countries have failed to reach a sustainable conclusion.
This conflict reflects a miscalculation on the part of the Pakistani, under the assumption that the Taliban would support its neighbor on the basis of a anti-Western, Islamist coalition, thus limiting the influence of Pashtun ethnonationalism. Instead, Islamabad has been struggling to cope with a hostile Afghanistan that uses the TTP as a proxy against its government.
Furthermore, Pakistan accuses India of supporting the Taliban, as it has rapidly warmed up to Kabul’s incumbent leadership, despite decades of investment in Afghani democracy before regime change. Delhi’s unprecedented shift is partly a move to threaten its long-time rival Pakistan, but also a way for it to deepen connections with Iran and Central Asia as it faces geopolitical threats from countries in its continent, such as China. Amidst this shift, foreign policy expert, Michael Kugelman warns that the Taliban may be an unreliable ally, similar to its relationship with Pakistan.
The ongoing tensions between Pakistan and Afghanistan highlight the fragility of alliances built on short-term interests rather than mutual trust. What began as a cooperative relationship rooted in shared ideology has unraveled into open hostility, fueled by terrorism, ethnic divisions, and competing regional agendas. As both nations continue to navigate shifting geopolitical dynamics involving powerful neighbors including India and China, their ability to establish lasting peace will depend on whether they can move beyond proxy conflicts and pursue genuine dialogue. Without meaningful cooperation, the region risks sliding further into instability and violence.