Written by: Andrea Iskandar
Edited by: Kendall Fagan
© Federico Rios
Venezuela’s displacement crisis, the largest in the Western hemisphere, is entering a phase with implications extending far beyond Venezuela and impacting international security. Since millions of Venezuelans fled the country due to economic collapse, political repression, and extreme insecurity, recent shifts in migration policies in the United States have consequently resulted in the emergence of a new pattern of reverse migration: Venezuelans who attempted to reach the U.S. in hopes of seeking asylum are now moving back South through Central and South America. As migrants are trapped in a limbo trying to find a safe place to stay, organized crime organizations are rapidly adapting to this new flow and streamlining profitable human smuggling practices.
In the last decade, nearly eight million Venezuelans have fled the country under Nicolas Maduro’s repressive authoritarian regime. Since 2022, more than 440,000 Venezuelans have embarked on the inhumane 60-mile roadless trek across the Darien gap; the only overland route connecting Panama and Colombia. The region’s extreme climate, dense jungle, and presence of dangerous wildlife are compounded by the lack of state control, allowing armed groups and organized crime organizations consolidate hegemonic control over the area.
The Gulf Clan and El Tren de Aragua have strengthened their control over key routes such as the Darien, the Colombian-Panama border regions, and Central American corridors, expanding their operations beyond drug trafficking and into migrant smuggling by charging fees to pass through the territory, turning migrant desperation into a highly lucrative business and heightening systemic abuse. Many migrants report being assaulted, robbed, trafficked, or sexually abused on the journey, with women being particularly vulnerable. Yet many preferred submitting to these conditions in hopes of finding better opportunities in the North instead of staying in Venezuela. Now, due to increasingly restrictive asylum policies in the U.S., closed legal protection pathways, and repressive deportation practices, over 14,000 migrants are retracing their steps back South through Mexico and Colombia, and this number is projected to increase exponentially. This reversal is accompanied by worse conditions than the original northbound trek: migrants have depleted savings, extreme exhaustion, and are facing increased exposure to violence. The deprivation of humanitarian aid and lack of assistance from local authorities are rendering these migrants “invisible.”
The longstanding presence of criminal operations such as drug trafficking, extortion, and armed territorial control in key transit areas are facilitating the integration of migrant smuggling into existing operations. Migrants are charged exorbitant fees for transportation, documentation, and protection, leading many to fall into debt bondage with these organizations and forcing them into criminal labour and exploitation. Another key problem this reverse flow is presenting is the concept of a “migrant limbo.” Since they cannot reach the U.S., and also can’t return to Venezuela because of domestic instability, they become a floating population without any legal or economic stability, rendering them increasingly more susceptible to criminal exploitation.
While reverse migration is still limited, it is accelerating, and criminal groups are already responding faster than law enforcement and governments. This trend signals that immigration deterrence does not stop migration, but merely redirects people into criminalized spaces. Not only is it exacerbating the humanitarian crisis and risking the lives of innocent people, but it also entrenching a self-reinforcing cycle: inadvertently stimulating the market for human smuggling, consequently fueling organized crime groups and cartels to expand transnational drug trading, human trafficking, and violence operations, deepening regional security risks and state fragility. If reverse flows continue to increase, the humanitarian crisis will worsen, and illicit markets will expand. As we assess the international and local implications of a post-Maduro Venezuela, early attention to this crisis is critical to preventing further entrenchment.